I recently sent an email titled “Housing Market Data: Downturn May Be Ending,” in which I stated according to a press release from the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun,”…residential mortgage loans are expected to be more readily available.” And then I posed the question, “What do you think? Wishful thinking or accurate prediction?”
The following is feedback I got from a title industry veteran, and it’s a very interesting viewpoint. There’s some alarming news for the real estate industry, but there’s a hopeful ending. What do you think about what he says…? Leave a comment below.
I’ve been in property research for nearly 38 years (since 1986). I’ve seen good times, bad times, and everything in between. But I’ve never seen work flow this slow for this long in my entire career. For the boots-on-the-ground abstractor it’s extremely tough times. I’ve already lost 1/3 of my abstractors in my network since 2021 that have completely left the field of Real Estate research to take jobs elsewhere.
It is true there’s been a recent up-tick in work flow, still well below typical Spring-time numbers, but it’s a noticeable increase compared to 2023 1st quarter numbers. However, this is also a predictable trend too. Here’s why.
The US Economy is the most powerful economic force on the planet, and has been for the last 90+/- years. The US Economy has suffered inflation, fuel shortages, recessions, depressions, wars, stock-market crashes, housing bubble burst brought on by ill-advised bank lending, weather catastrophes like hurricanes Katrina and Ian, (and now add global pandemic to the list). The US Economy has experienced it’s list of major set-backs over the years. And initially the Economy takes a hit, and often the people responsible for creating the problem scramble to offer solutions to float us to the next cliff to fall from, and the cycle continues.
But here’s what really happens.
The US Economy is extremely vast and powerful. I compare it to a very large river, like the Mississippi River. If we compare an economic set-back to an obstacle that temporarily dams up the river; at first the dam appears to be effective in stopping or slowing down the river flow, but in time the powerful current breaks the dam or re-routes and goes around the damn creating a new path. I think what we’re experiencing now is the river (the economy) adapting to the dam and re-routing around the obstacle. This re-routing or recovery of the economy can happen faster or slower depending on how involved the wingnuts that caused the dam with their dumb policies are allowed to continue their bureaucratic meddling. But regardless of natural disasters, world events, or policy makers intrusions, in time the river will correct… eventually. Hopefully sooner than later.
My 2 cents.
N.G. – Mississippi Title Searcher”